Figure 15: NPV Comparison -- Alternate Baselines: SH/RA100/ B1991, B2000, B2003, B2006

            The figure shows four S-shaped curves that compare the likely NPV for alternate IBC baselines.  The x axis is labeled "Net Present Value (billions $)" and the y axis is labeled "Probability of Not Exceeding."  The four S-shaped curves are relatively close together. The S-shaped curve for B1991 uses light-colored rectangles to designate points on the curve.  For B1991, the NPV at 10% probability is $ 4.7 billion, the NPV at 50% probability is $ 7.6 billion, and the NPV at 90% probability is $ 11.0 billion.  The S-shaped curve for B2000 uses small circles to designate points on the curve.  For B2000, the NPV at 10% probability is $ 5.7 billion, the NPV at 50% probability is $ 8.2 billion, and the NPV at 90% probability is $ 11.3 billion.  The S-shaped curve for B2003 uses small diamonds to designate points on the curve.  For B2003, the NPV at 10% probability is $ 5.6 billion, the NPV at 50% probability is $ 7.8 billion, and the NPV at 90% probability is $ 10.4 billion.  The S-shaped curve for B2006 uses small triangles to designate points on the curve.  For B2006, the NPV at 10% probability is $ 5.2 billion, the NPV at 50% probability is $ 7.0 billion, and the NPV at 90% probability is $ 8.9 billion.