__Figure 15: NPV Comparison -- Alternate Baselines:
SH/RA100/ B1991, B2000, B2003, B2006__

The figure shows four S-shaped curves that
compare the likely NPV for alternate IBC baselines. The *x* axis is
labeled "Net Present Value (billions $)" and the *y* axis is labeled
"Probability of Not Exceeding." The four S-shaped curves are relatively close
together. The S-shaped curve for B1991 uses light-colored rectangles to
designate points on the curve. For B1991, the NPV at 10% probability is $ 4.7
billion, the NPV at 50% probability is $ 7.6 billion, and the NPV at 90%
probability is $ 11.0 billion. The S-shaped curve for B2000 uses small circles
to designate points on the curve. For B2000, the NPV at 10% probability is $
5.7 billion, the NPV at 50% probability is $ 8.2 billion, and the NPV at 90%
probability is $ 11.3 billion. The S-shaped curve for B2003 uses small
diamonds to designate points on the curve. For B2003, the NPV at 10%
probability is $ 5.6 billion, the NPV at 50% probability is $ 7.8 billion, and
the NPV at 90% probability is $ 10.4 billion. The S-shaped curve for B2006
uses small triangles to designate points on the curve. For B2006, the NPV at
10% probability is $ 5.2 billion, the NPV at 50% probability is $ 7.0 billion,
and the NPV at 90% probability is $ 8.9 billion.